I agree with you 99%. The only exception is that I like biometrics, which is why I hung around and did my PhD.

I didn't really start collecting data to predict market shifts. I was really trying to understand some of the factors which appear to influence price. That is more of a "timeless" exercise. As I say, I may have just got lucky with the timing of GFC mark 1 and 2 which may show an effect which is replicated across many different cymbal models. We'll see.

And I've got just the sort of data I wanted to use for the development of some new techniques of analysis. Now if markets would kindly stop changing I could stop collecting more data and just enjoy my model fitting research. Coffee Break2

I tend to agree with Zenstat - it's just too complicated a market to generalize across the board. Most middle end cymbals have gone down over the past few years, and Paiste reissues seem to have driven down prices for vintage 602's and 2002's in certain sizes. Some non-reissue sizes have sold recently for higher than usual prices.

Old Stamp K's have gone up, some through the roof, like this 22 that sold recently for $4800: http://www.ebay.com/itm/290602932819

But New Stamps K's seem to be everywhere, the market is a little flooded with them, and prices have gone down.

Trans Stamps have been soaring in value. Regular 60's and 70's A's seem lower than ever.

I think Zen's work on this is priceless. But I think the decline has been pretty obvious in the cymbal market for at least 12 months if not more. I pulled my last sale 6 months ago and I don't even bother selling any more. Cymbals have lost more value than drums recently; and there are probably good reasons for that. I also think it's also related to the loss of live gigs, which is world wide. With Paiste, the investment grade cymbal was the 602. As soon as Paiste re-released it, prices began falling. I have had Paiste searches running in every European eBay site for 5 years and there used to be just a few in .fr, for instance. Now there's plenty because they are new. This affects the market. Conversely, it's hard to get a grip on prices because sellers are just holding off. You don't sell in a slump. So occasionally someone does and takes a beating. Everything comes back. The drum strippers are a worry to me. At least you can't strip a cymbal. ($.02)