Looks like a late stamp...

Okay, thx. What does that mean?

60's-70's...

So do you think 600$ are a good price?

What size? Just one?

The correct term for that according to Bill Hartrick who invented the timeline and the terms is a New Stamp not a Late Stamp. Here is an illustrated site which ripped off Bill's work but gives no credit to him:

http://robscott.net/cymbals/k-istanbul/

Since this site copied his work, Bill has distinguished between an Older New Stamp and a Newer New Stamp, based on the distance between the portion in English and the more abstract design (in Arabic?) above. I'm not able to tell you whether that distance on yours makes it an Older New Stamp (closer together) or a Newer New Stamp (further apart) because I don't know what the dividing line is in terms of measurement. To me yours looks like an Older New Stamp (closer one) which Bill places at 1967-1972 in his latest (2013) published timeline. Ref: Rob Cook, The Gretsch Drum Book, p250-251.

For a 20" a price of $600 seems good in the USA (I don't know if you are elsewhere) if there isn't any damage which we aren't seeing in your photo. Condition affects the expected price, but it is not the only factor. The expected price would also tend to be higher if it is lighter (say below 1800g) and lower if it is heavy (say above 2400g). There are other factors at play but those probably have the most impact on expected price.

For the most recent prices I've recorded (n=21) the range is $400 to $1900 with an average of $825. For less than 1800g the average is $1,000. For more than 2400g the average is $500. You should see what an effect weight has at a glance (if your eyes haven't glazed over yet from all the numbers). This is just a quick and incomplete analysis because [list]I've got lots more sales recorded but they aren't yet ready to analyze,

[*]I should really fit a statistical model including both condition and weight to estimate the separate effects of the two factors.

[*]I prefer to use more robust measures of central tendency than the average so that they are less influenced by extreme outliers.[/list] But I haven't got to that yet. Oh, and don't be misled by higher values you might see for Old Stamps. Well informed anecdotal evidence suggests they fetch higher prices than Intermediate or New Stamps (other things being equal). Again, I'm working on building a database and analysis which quantifies that effect, but it hasn't happened yet.

Not to argue with your statistics, which are an admirable effort from your side, but those prices seem low to me, especially 500 USD for >2400 gr. I also think it would be difficult to pick up a 20" NS <1800 gr for 1000 USD. Here in Europe, I doubt it is possible, unless you are very lucky.

Regardless of weight, I'd say that 600 USD for any 20" New Stamp is a steal.

/Magnus

Hi Magnus,

Thanks for taking the time to read through my summary of actual price data.

I believe that European prices are generally higher than USA eBay for old Ks as well as Paiste Sound Creations and 602s (blue label and earlier -- not the reissues). However, I haven't ever had good enough evidence so I can get a calibration on that factor. Since the original poster has leipzig in his screen name, I specifically mentioned the "it depends on where you are" factor.

I also believe (but again the evidence isn't strong) that the reason people overestimate the expected prices of old Ks is what is called "confirmation bias". In a nutshell, if you don't record all the sales (or a representative sample) then you will selectively remember the more extreme values because they stick in your memory. For those who believe that old Ks are going up in value all the time, they tend to "confirm" this belief system by remembering the biggest prices. This is a well known phenomenon, and it is why collection of proper statistics is valuable to society. Now you could just claim that I'm suffering from "confirmation bias" myself since I'm a statistician and thus I remember the cases where the public beliefs about things are at variance with what is actually happening.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

Another contributing factor to overestimation (again well documented in the general case -- this isn't just about cymbals) is media coverage. In this case I'd say that includes asking prices on quality web sites like Steve Maxwell, Classic Vintage Drums, etc. Plus the media environment also includes all the online forums where there are old K owners and those who lust after them. Like here on VDF. Here is an article about just how far out people are at estimating some things in their own countries:

http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/oct/29/todays-key-fact-you-are-probably-wrong-about-almost-everything

The final issue (among the top 10 issues :) ) is that people tend to focus on individual values or a few memorable values, rather than have a handle on just how variable achieved prices are. Again, this is a general phenomenon not restricted to old Ks or cymbals! Achieved prices are quite variable, and two old Ks which are pretty much interchangeable (at least as far as I can tell) might sell a day apart and one gets $600 and the other gets $1200. So yes, the average for 20" New Stamps above 2450g is $500 but the range includes much higher prices and some lower ones.

In order to report this more fully what I'd do is report the median (less influenced by extreme outliers) in addition to the average, plus give the quartiles of the distribution. That lets us make statements like "three quarters of 20" New Stamps weighing > 2450g sell for less than $xx.xx" which might give a better picture to people. I haven't done that yet because I'm busy on other things, including collecting much more data which will help fine up our understanding when I do get to a more complete report. I've been scoffed at before for saying "things are quite variable so you need a reasonable amount of recorded (not remembered) completed sales in order to get a handle on the variation". This is also covered in the "confirmation bias" article in the studies of the persistence of people's belief systems even when presented with proper evidence to the contrary. I don't take the scoffing too personally, and I simply continue to try and lift our game for the benefit of the entire vintage drum and cymbal community. A guy has to have some hobbies in retirement. :D

Hi Steve,

Interesting stuff, and thanks for taking the time and investing the energy and expertise to share all this. Of course your collected data gives a more complete - and true - picture than mere hunches.

I still would say that 600 USD for a 20" New Stamp Old K is a great deal. But perhaps my reference point is rather the prices reached at sites like Cymbalholic. I know of people who have been lucky and bought Old Ks at very low prices, and those cases will naturally influence the average prices paid.

Anyway, it's great that you are collecting these data and presenting them to the drumming community.

Best,

Magnus