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  #21  
Old 06-28-2020, 01:50 PM
Drumaholic Drumaholic is offline
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Default Re: Old K Alert...Old K Alert.. Man your stations man your stations...

O.K. Let's have some fun here. 5 days left and it's up to almost $900. Anybody want to take a guess what it'll be at closing ?



Istanbul K Zildjian Paper Thin Cymbal IIIb IIIc Signed & Label 18” Ride Crash

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Istanbul-K-...IAAOSwvJ9e8fSW
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  #22  
Old 06-28-2020, 03:42 PM
jda jda is online now
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Default Re: Old K Alert...Old K Alert.. Man your stations man your stations...

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Istanbul-K-...53.m1438.l2649

think it's going to bang up against $2000
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  #23  
Old 06-28-2020, 07:59 PM
O-Lugs O-Lugs is offline
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Default Re: Old K Alert...Old K Alert.. Man your stations man your stations...

$2,769.06.......That' my guess! lol
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  #24  
Old 06-28-2020, 09:39 PM
zenstat zenstat is offline
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Default Re: Old K Alert...Old K Alert.. Man your stations man your stations...

I'd say $1100 tops is the most likely outcome. Maybe as high as $1200. Maybe it will just go at around $1000.

My tracking data predicts an expected value of $900 given the weight of 1378g and type IIIb and pristine condition with signature and label. My earlier price report (data through 2017) had

18" OS: Expected median price $750 with half selling for between $500 and $900 n=24

and this one gets $900 based on its condition.

http://black.net.nz/old-k/old-k-prices.html#18

Since then I've collected a bit more data. There is one sale of a IVa at 1473g which went for $1195 towards the end of January. Other than that it's all under $1000 for these. That's based on 38 sales of those cymbals under 1800g. You'll see why I separate out those 1800g and over if you follow that link.

The current top bidder a***5 is Walter1122 based on bidding pattern. Walter also does watches and bicycles and other sporting good so I figured it was him right away. Checking the feedback score (3483) confirms this.

Note that if Walter is looking for upside on potential resale he may drop out before $1100. His more recent sales of these are captured in my data and he would be pushing it at $1100 if he expects to resell at a profit. Just 5 sales out of 32 are at that price level or higher.

Of course he might be out to replace ones he sold recently for lower prices. His two recent sales of 18" Old Stamps are a IIIa at 1395g which went for $530 in Aug 2019, and a IIa at 1164g which went for $785 in Jul 2019. Nothing wrong with them. They just didn't get high prices. So it's possible that Walter will stay in and bid it up over $1100, but that isn't a very likely outcome unless he wants to play them rather than sell them at a profit. I don't know how much he is a player and how much he is a merchant.

Back in 2014 Walter sold a couple of 18" Old Stamp cymbals: 1364g for $1045 and 1270g for $1350. So he holds the price record for an Old Stamp 18". But he would probably have trouble reaching those prices right now. Economic downturns do depress cymbal prices based on studies of what happened in 2008/2009. Maybe he will bid it up and store it for a year...who knows.

As far as weights go, 1380g is the average for 18" Old Stamps below 1800g, so that one is average weight. Half are between 1300g and 1475g. The lightest is a IIa at 1164g in my records, and that one sold for $785 in July 2019.

*** edit *** see the updated weight analysis in a new post

So now we wait to see how it pans out. I'll be watching from the sidelines.
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Last edited by zenstat; 07-02-2020 at 04:46 PM. Reason: updated analysis of weights
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  #25  
Old 06-29-2020, 09:16 AM
paulwells73 paulwells73 is offline
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Default Re: Old K Alert...Old K Alert.. Man your stations man your stations...

Quote:
Originally Posted by zenstat View Post
I'd say $1100 tops is the most likely outcome. Maybe as high as $1200. Maybe it will just go at around $1000.

My tracking data predicts an expected value of $900 given the weight of 1378g and type IIIb and pristine condition with signature and label. My earlier price report (data through 2017) had

18" OS: Expected median price $750 with half selling for between $500 and $900 n=24

and this one gets $900 based on its condition.

http://black.net.nz/old-k/old-k-prices.html#18

Since then I've collected a bit more data. There is one sale of a IVa at 1473g which went for $1195 towards the end of January. Other than that it's all under $1000 for these. That's based on 38 sales of those cymbals under 1800g. You'll see why I separate out those 1800g and over if you follow that link.

The current top bidder a***5 is Walter1122 based on bidding pattern. Walter also does watches and bicycles and other sporting good so I figured it was him right away. Checking the feedback score (3483) confirms this.

Note that if Walter is looking for upside on potential resale he may drop out before $1100. His more recent sales of these are captured in my data and he would be pushing it at $1100 if he expects to resell at a profit. Just 5 sales out of 32 are at that price level or higher.

Of course he might be out to replace ones he sold recently for lower prices. His two recent sales of 18" Old Stamps are a IIIa at 1395g which went for $530 in Aug 2019, and a IIa at 1164g which went for $785 in Jul 2019. Nothing wrong with them. They just didn't get high prices. So it's possible that Walter will stay in and bid it up over $1100, but that isn't a very likely outcome unless he wants to play them rather than sell them at a profit. I don't know how much he is a player and how much he is a merchant.

Back in 2014 Walter sold a couple of 18" Old Stamp cymbals: 1364g for $1045 and 1270g for $1350. So he holds the price record for an Old Stamp 18". But he would probably have trouble reaching those prices right now. Economic downturns do depress cymbal prices based on studies of what happened in 2008/2009. Maybe he will bid it up and store it for a year...who knows.

As far as weights go, 1380g is the average for 18" Old Stamps, so that one is average weight. Half are between 1300g and 1475g. The lightest is a IIa at 1164g in my records, and that one sold for $785 in July 2019. This weight distribution includes the heavier (over 1800g) ones as well so it covers the full range.

So now we wait to see how it pans out. I'll be watching from the sidelines.
You’re the best, Zen - thank you!
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  #26  
Old 06-29-2020, 02:43 PM
jda jda is online now
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Default Re: Old K Alert...Old K Alert.. Man your stations man your stations...

there's a
https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/dcIAA...FO/s-l1600.jpg
18" no cracks ....no bids..sitting at 850/1200bin/ right next to it...
I or a II?
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Last edited by jda; 06-29-2020 at 02:45 PM.
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  #27  
Old 06-29-2020, 03:30 PM
Drumaholic Drumaholic is offline
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Default Re: Old K Alert...Old K Alert.. Man your stations man your stations...

Yes it is. That makes two 18" type I K.s that are now up for auction.
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  #28  
Old 06-29-2020, 03:46 PM
Drumaholic Drumaholic is offline
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Default Re: Old K Alert...Old K Alert.. Man your stations man your stations...

And here's an announcement folks: "Attention K mart shoppers!....".

There's a 16" up there too.



It's the most rarely seen of all the old stamps; a type IIIc.
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  #29  
Old 06-29-2020, 10:25 PM
zenstat zenstat is offline
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Default Re: Old K Alert...Old K Alert.. Man your stations man your stations...

Updated analysis:

Since there are a few 18" cymbals around at the moment I've updated my stats. I also found a recently completed Walter auction (June 21st) which ended with the cymbal being "no longer available". I hadn't done the data processing yet. He was asking $1440 for an 18" IIa weighing 1223g. This one is in the weight stats below, but not in the price stats because we don't yet know what it sold for, or even if it did sell. Part of the fun of "no longer available". The other odd thing about this auction is the title of the auction says 1230g, the text says 1225g, and the picture of weighing says 1223g. I've gone for 1223g in my records. That makes it 4th lightest.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/K-ZILDJIAN-...-/293617275247

Updated weight stats are:

For 18" Old Stamp cymbals less than 1800g (n=41)

median weight 1378g with half between 1300g and 1470g
lightest 3: 1164g, 1175g, 1221g

For 18" Old stamp cymbals at 1800g and above (n=7)

median weight 2035g with weights going from 1803g to 2330g.

Note that it might be better to put the split between heavier and lighter 18" cymbals at something like 1700g or 1600g than 1800g, but I haven't had a fresh look at that. And remember that I'm just looking at Old Stamps in this discussion. Intermediate and New Stamp cymbals are another kettle of fish. So are the older K Zildjian Constantinople cymbals where there are just two sales in my database for the 18" diameter. One was a 2135g where the seller had been advised by "experts" to ask $10,000. It eventually sold for $742.40 after a few relists. This was back in Dec 2016 through April 2017. It took a long time to sell. I blame the "experts" who got the seller all excited. The other cymbal was a light one at 1134g and it sold for $1742.17 back in Feb 2018. That one took a week to sell and had 34 bids.
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Last edited by zenstat; 06-29-2020 at 10:27 PM.
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  #30  
Old 06-30-2020, 12:02 PM
jda jda is online now
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Default Re: Old K Alert...Old K Alert.. Man your stations man your stations...

Quote:
Originally Posted by zenstat View Post
So are the older K Zildjian Constantinople cymbals where ...The other cymbal was a light one at 1134g and it sold for $1742.17 back in Feb 2018. That one took a week to sell and had 34 bids.
That's Not bad for a weeks' work ; )
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