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  #11  
Old 01-10-2018, 11:51 PM
zenstat zenstat is offline
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Default Re: How high might this one go?

Sold for $1982.73 with 59 bids.
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Paiste 602/Sound Creation research click here
Which K Stamp? A DIY tool click here
Old K prices and weights click here
Avedis Zildjian gallery and timeline click here
Old A prices and weights click here
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  #12  
Old 01-10-2018, 11:59 PM
idrum4fun idrum4fun is offline
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Default Re: How high might this one go?

Quote:
Originally Posted by zenstat View Post
Sold for $1982.73 with 59 bids.
Wow!

-Mark
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  #13  
Old 01-11-2018, 01:20 AM
Dan Boucher Dan Boucher is offline
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Default Re: How high might this one go?

Quote:
Originally Posted by zenstat View Post
From my pricing research:



20" Old Stamp: Expected median price $1290 with half selling for between $965 and $1600 n=26

This one is most likely to sell in the $1700-$2100 range given the condition and that the weight is in the "sweet spot" from 1700g to 1900g.

Full pricing data on all diameters and weights which gives a lot more context is available through the link in my signature.
Do your stats include information on how long you had to hold them as an investment to take a 10% profit? I'm wondering if they have actually been a good investment for those that have kept them over the years, particularly viewing other lost opportunities. Secondly, are they still worth buying in terms of investment, or only for love of the sound?
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  #14  
Old 01-11-2018, 10:31 AM
idrum4fun idrum4fun is offline
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Default Re: How high might this one go?

Dan brings up a good point. Personally, given the price, I don't see these as investments anymore. As for "sound", is it really worth 2k? Are there no other cymbals, for a fraction of the price, that will deliver similar sound and feel? Just my

-Mark
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  #15  
Old 01-11-2018, 02:11 PM
zenstat zenstat is offline
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Default Re: How high might this one go?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Boucher View Post
Do your stats include information on how long you had to hold them as an investment to take a 10% profit? I'm wondering if they have actually been a good investment for those that have kept them over the years, particularly viewing other lost opportunities. Secondly, are they still worth buying in terms of investment, or only for love of the sound?
According to my research, prices for old Ks haven't changed detectably over the years I have been tracking them (2013-2017). It is more difficult to get accurate estimates of selling prices for years further back in time because there isn't much quality data. We just get glimpses of prices from the mid 2000s now and again.

If you follow the link to my report you will see that this is different from what people believe. I've gone into some reasons why people believe prices are going up although that is not what appears when you record actual selling prices:

http://black.net.nz/old-k/old-k-prices.html#summary

Here is another price increase prediction from a VDF thread October 2009

Quote:
Originally Posted by Drumaholic View Post
...That first one is the most notable. It's an Istanbul K old stamp from the early 1950's. That should be worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $800, and will appreciate at about 15% per year as time goes on.

The 14" A hats are from the late 1950's and are probably worth around $150 - $200.

That Beverly is worth almost nothing because there's no real demand for them. They are basically 2nd tier Zyn's which were made by Italian artisans for Premier.

But the real prize is the old K. And something else special about that one is the odd size. True 18" cymbals from them invariably measured around 17-5/8" to 17-3/4", or more rarely sometimes as small as 17-1/2". But yours being 18-1/2" makes it an oddball. Even though they never officially made 19" cymbals, they still made some anyway; so maybe that's what they were after when they made this one.
If you start with an estimated value of $800 and increase it by 15% per year then this equates to an expected price of of $2128 in 2017. The actual selling price for 18" Old Stamp Ks is currently $750 with half selling for between $500 and $900 n=24. If you adjust for inflation the drop in price would be a bit larger. If we treat it as a 19" cymbal then the expected median price is $1400 although that is based on only 6 completed sales. But it still falls well short of a $2000 predicted price point.

This doesn't mean there isn't money to be made on individual transactions. You have to buy low and sell high. There was an example of this recently on eBay. A 22" Intermediate Stamp at 2320g was purchased on Dec 10, 2017 for $1400 and flipped for $2297 on Dec 24, 2017. Ebay item numbers below:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/162779961083
https://www.ebay.com/itm/282776693531

Not all of the increase is profit because eBay will have taken a chunk of that. But he still made a healthy return. This is the same seller as the one who just sold the 20" Old Stamp K cymbal which started this thread. I don't have a previous sale of that 20" Old Stamp K cymbal in my records so I can't say what his buy price was. However, for each transaction like that there are several transactions where somebody resells a cymbal for the same or a bit less than they purchased it for.

18" Intermediate stamp Istanbul K, 1820g in "cleaned" condition. Bought for $750, resold for $511 (8 bids) in July 2014
20" Old Stamp Hartrick Type III Istanbul K, 2150g. Bought for $1995, resold for $1475 (15 bids) in Mar 2017
20" New Stamp Istanbul K, 1904g some keyhole. Bought for $1495, resold for $999.95 (1 bid) in Apr 2017

and I've got more examples for old Ks plus examples for old As and Paiste Dark Rides. I haven't yet gone through my full tracking data to extract all resale examples so I can't say what proportion of the re-sales of used cymbals fall below the purchase price in my data, but the fact that there are any such examples should sound a note of caution.

A canny buyer and seller can make a return, but when you look at the prices in the market overall it seems to be in a steady state. Making a return on investment is dependent on paying less than expected value and then selling for more than that.

There are some who still believe that the long term trend in prices for K Zildjian Istanbul cymbals is going up, and they will "buy and hold" hoping for a long term increase. From July 2017:

Quote:
Hand hammered master pieces will only continue to go up in value.
and May 2017:

Quote:
I've been trading off drum sets for old K. Zildjians, easier to store and I believe will continue to increase in value.
Note that in these quotes there is the implicit belief that prices have been going up even though it doesn't seem to be so when you record actual selling prices. In the bigger context of economics and investment none of this disconnect between actual prices and beliefs is surprising. And if you use my prediction equations neither is the price that 20" Old Stamp K which started off this thread.

For those of you who believe that Old Ks are "too expensive" to be worth investing in, you might be right...or not. I can't predict the future. I can tell you what has happened in the recent past (5 years). Another important thing to remember is that in terms of market prices your personal belief doesn't have a big impact. If there are 98 people buying old Ks each year and two of you aren't because you think they are overpriced, then your "share of beliefs" influencing the whole market is only 2%. But you should certainly act on the basis of your own beliefs.

Disclaimer: I don't invest in cymbals. I just study prices as a research exercise.
__________________
For every expert, there is an equal and opposite expert, but for every fact there is not necessarily an equal and opposite fact (Thomas Sowell, 1995 in The Vision of the Anointed)

Paiste 602/Sound Creation research click here
Which K Stamp? A DIY tool click here
Old K prices and weights click here
Avedis Zildjian gallery and timeline click here
Old A prices and weights click here

Last edited by zenstat; 01-14-2018 at 06:54 PM. Reason: more examples and beliefs overview
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  #16  
Old 01-12-2018, 11:10 PM
DrumBob DrumBob is offline
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Default Re: How high might this one go?

Quote:
Originally Posted by idrum4fun View Post
Dan brings up a good point. Are there no other cymbals, for a fraction of the price, that will deliver similar sound and feel? Just my

-Mark
Yes, there are. In my post in this thread, I talked about Dream Bliss cymbals made in China, that deliver the dirty and dark sound Ks are known for...and they cost about $150 plus for a 20" ride. Jazz drummers like them, because they're reasonably priced. I have played Meinl rides lately that are equally dark sounding, so yes, there are cheaper alternatives. Bosphorous cymbals tend to be darker in character as well.
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